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Tablet Evolution is Just Beginning
Given the relative youth of the technology, it is understandable that tablets have by no means reached the peak of their
potential. As the technology continues to evolve, the tablet computers of tomorrow may not
even resemble those of today.
This
seems to be the opinion of Adobe® CEO Shantanu Narayen, who says tablets will become more complete computing machines
than they are today. Tablets, he asserts, will become more than just media consumption devices as their hardware is upgraded
and processors become more powerful.
"When we think of content offering as tablet applications, it's clear that tablet applications today are a consumption
device, but these tablet applications continue to gain in power, and it's no question that they will be used not just for
consumption, but also for authoring," Narayen says, according to technology news provider ZDNet.
Narayen notes that Adobe is currently working to make this
a reality, beginning with the launch of its Carousel imaging application for tablets. The software developer says tablets
will eventually be used for web creation, graphic design and myriad other authoring applications.
The news provider notes that the emergence of the quad-core
processor for tablets will likely help move this evolution along. This is a notion echoed by Nvidia® CEO Jen-Hsun Huang,
who says his company is working to deliver quad-core tablet processors by the 2011 holiday season. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Apple's innovation engine has done
it again. First, it forever changed the music industry. Next, it redefined the mobile phone business. Now, it's doing its
number on personal computing.
Computer industry researchers are calculating the effects of mobile devices — what Steve Jobs refers to as post-PC-era products — on the PC market. They're concluding that changing consumer patterns,
such as the proliferation of smartphones and the rising use of iPads and other tablet computers, are starting to bite into
the traditional PC market.
"The post-PC era represents a change in consumer behavior. It's not just the device. It's the social behavior.
It's a social trend," says Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps. "The post-PC era represents a social shift and a
technology shift."
What's
at stake: the spoils of the PC industry and who gets to redefine the landscape.
That is increasingly being driven
by consumers' appetite for portability, battery longevity and a different computing experience. What's happening is that people
are changing their habits as they add tablets to their menu of computing needs. That's because portable computing is no longer
just a desk activity.
It now goes to the living room, dining room and bedroom or easily travels in a purse to
be shared with friends. It can be both entertainer or lightweight road warrior.
"Computing has become more ubiquitous,
casual and intimate," Rotman Epps says.
In turn, consumer buying behaviors are changing: Gartner on March 3 revised downward its global PC forecast — which includes desktops, laptops
and netbooks — citing the iPad effect. Gartner lowered its worldwide PC shipments forecast for 2011 to growth of 10.5%
compared with previous predictions for 15.9%. The analyst firm now sees weaker consumer demand for the segment of the traditional
market known as mobile PCs, which consists of laptops and netbooks.
Netbooks are expected to be the hardest hit....they're
going bye...bye....
"Ignited by Apple's iPad, tablets to us represent a distinct new mobile computing category, significantly expanding
the computing market," RBC analyst Mike Abramsky wrote.
Rick Friesen, 55, of Billings, Mont., travels for about 50% of
his work schedule. After looking at netbooks, he recently concluded a tablet would take care of most of his needs. "An
iPad looks like it will do 90% to 95% of what I do on the road," he says. But he also likes the lightweight portability
of an electronic reader. "I was looking for a reader, too. So I kill two birds with one stone."
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Tablet
and smartphone shipments combined are now expected to trump PC shipments by 2012, according to another forecast. By 2014 such
devices together will represent 64% of all computers, says the report from RBC Capital Markets.
That trend will likely continue to influence the buying decisions for tens of millions of consumers this year. Industry
analysts expect that Apple will sell north of 5 million iPads during its second quarter. When was the last time a computing
device had such star status?
"I would go for an iPad over a netbook but not a laptop," William Barnes of Sacramento recently said as he exited the Apple Store in downtown San Francisco.
That
sentiment is exactly what's been tracked by Gartner's research.
"Mobile PC growth has slowed quite a bit, and it's certainly
been the case with netbooks," says Gartner analyst George Shiffler. Even though netbooks are usually cheaper, the lower-cost
mobile PCs and iPads are both pitched at the same market. "In some ways, the tablet has the advantage because it's more
mobile," he says.
People are still buying larger, more powerful laptops. But consumers are less inclined to
choose a netbook when the choice is between it and a tablet device.
Don't write the traditional PC's epitaph
just yet. People still need them to perform more difficult computing tasks. "People talk about the PC market like it's
broken. It's not," says analyst Richard Shim of industry tracker DisplaySearch. Gartner expects worldwide PC shipments
next year of 440.6 million units, up 13.6% from 2011.
By
2017, roughly two tablet PCs will ship for every three notebook computers worldwide, according to industry tracker DisplaySearch.
Indeed,
tablet forecasts underscore remarks from Apple chief Jobs, who recently said of the company, "We're in a position now
where the majority of our revenues come from these post-PC products."
To be sure, Microsoft beat Apple to tablets with a foray into this "other category" computing device.
Microsoft's early version of a tablet PC, announced in 2001, began with a stylus and a laptop whose screen could flip around
to be activated by the stylus.
Later Windows tablet versions would emerge, but none had a wow factor to spur widespread
consumer interest. "The tablet PC did not invent the modern tablet — it crashed and burned," Jobs said at
the iPad 2 launch, in clear reference to Microsoft's futile tablet efforts.
The impact of Microsoft's missteps in adapting
its mobile strategy to capture consumer interest was punctuated last year when Apple passed the software giant in value to
become the No. 1 technology company based on market capitalization, a multiple of the number of shares outstanding and company
share price.
Apple sold nearly 15 million iPads, generating $9.5 billion in revenue, last year.
"That's more than
every tablet PC ever sold," Jobs said.
The company is on track to ship 43.7 million iPads for 2011 and 63.3 million
in 2012, says industry tracker iSuppli. Tablets based on Google's Android operating
system from Motorola, Samsung, Hewlett-Packard and RIM are vying for a chunk of the lucrative
market as well. Yet, early reports from technology researcher Forrester say Android-based tablets are poised to fail and lack
consumer interest.
"Windows is consumers' No. 1 preferred operating system for tablets. And yet Microsoft's partners have failed
to deliver a Windows experience on tablets that competes with the touch-first, always-on, instant-on experience of the iPad,"
says Rotman Epps.
Forrester and others believe Microsoft has the potential to offer a compelling slate. But it shouldn't depend on
partners such as Asus or Hewlett-Packard to drive a sexy Windows
tablet. "You have to use a lighter OS and a mobile processor," says DisplaySearch's Shim. "It requires a very
big investment in starting over."
